Monday, 26 October 2009

Germany Aug

  • Germany Aug. IFO - much like the US confidence numbers, this important survey, which normally correlates well with the equity indices, has failed to rally anywhere near as much as risk appetite in general, suggesting a disconnect in the real state of expectations and the "supposed" state as expressed in the stock market.
  • US Jul. Durable Goods Orders - a volatile figure, this one has recovered fully after near record breaking weakness during the fall/winter meltdown. The year on year comparisons remind us where we came from however: ex transportation durable goods ran at a -22.2% clip for the June numbers.
  • US Jul. New Home Sales - the disparity between the weak recovery in New Home Sales and the strong bounce in Existing home sales shows that activity in existing home sales has a lot to do with bargain prices and distressed sales and the fed tax credit for first time buyers that expires December 1. New Home Sales are a better indicator of the state of housing.
  • US Crude Oil and Product Supplies - this has become a more interesting number than usual after last week's enormous drop in inventories and with crude oil trading close to the highs for the year. Supplies are still plentiful relative to historic norms.

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