Ana is a tropical depression whose current track going up the gulf side of the Florida coast whose track theoretically could and may be more of a threat to oil production but that really depends on the strength of the storm which at this time though uncertain seems to be less of a threat. The National Hurricane center says that Ana is moving at an uncertain but fast track. The storm is tightly clustered for the next 36 hours or so and in is expected that Ana will move over Hispaniola. Then the storm’s, “dynamical guidance will weaken and bring the remnants toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico or Florida.” But it is possible that the storm may fizzle out over Hispaniola and not become an issue.
Then there is Hurricane Bill that looks like it will go up the East-Coast and miss the key oil producing Gulf completely. Though the storm could change direction the market seems like it will not become an issue.
So if the storms are not an issue then the economy will be. Stocks are concerned about more bank failures and the fact that Japan’s economy grew less than estimated. Stocks in Asia and Europe fell as the US dropped last week. As far as an important indicator of future energy demand, traders may focus on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Index. Traders are looking for the first expansion in New York manufacturing in a year and if they do not get it, the energy complex may feel the brunt of the disappointment.
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We're short Sept crude from apprx 7150 – lower stop to 7050!
Sell September heating oil 19300 - stop 19700.
Sell September RBOB 20550 –lower stop 20900.
Sell September natural gas at 470 - stop 480.